"Diffusion of smartphones": how is it going?

In 1983, Everett Rogers proposed his own model for describing the “diffusion of innovations” - the process of spreading new technologies among a wide range of consumers. In his study, Rogers used the S-shaped diffusion curve of innovation, which shows the dependence of the distribution of a product on the buyer's individual predisposition to the perception of innovation. For this, the scientist identified five consumer groups: innovators, early followers, the earlier majority, the later majority, and the late.

The idea is that due to the various contacts between consumers, the product is distributed as quickly as possible. First, a group of innovators (2.5% of the population) begins to promote this or that technology, connecting to the process of early followers (13.5%). After some time, innovation is recognized by the early majority (34%) and later by the majority (34%). In the end, the so-called latecomers (in other words, conservatives, 16% of the population), also change their attitude towards the new product and begin to use it.

Analysts from Asymco decided to compare the Rogers model with the modern smartphone market. Surprisingly, the latter is not only fully subordinate to the scheme proposed in 1983, but is now at the stage of introduction into the “later majority” group. In the US, the degree of distribution of smartphones is already above 60%, a similar situation is observed in the five largest European smartphone markets. Nevertheless, the average "adoption" of smartphones in the rest of the world does not exceed 22%.

In the event that consumers adapt at the same speed, in 2015, the smartphone market will face a slowdown in the spread of new technologies by reducing the very “late”. And by 2020 there will be a glut of the market or a 100 percent distribution of smartphones.

As for the distribution of individual platforms, it is still more interesting. The undisputed leaders at the moment are iOS and Android, while Microsoft and BlackBerry (RIM) are among the outsiders.

Experts can still predict the situation on the smartphone market, but they cannot predict the behavior of a technology corporation. Modern IT giants have become too unpredictable.

By comparing current data with the Rogers model, it is possible to trace how the announcement of a product affects the overall level of consumer adaptation.

What will happen after the glut of the market? Most likely, smartphone manufacturers will no longer entice customers of their competitors, but will focus on their own consumers. Apple is already working on this tactic, and it brings good results to the company.

The article is based on materials https://hi-news.ru/phone/diffuziya-smartfonov-kak-ona-proisxodit.html.